what is the minimal number of ns interviews you are all comfortable with in regards to ensuring you will match?

Hey!

Check out this PDF...it’s the charting outcomes from 2009 match and has some great info about neurosurgery (i.e. chance of matching correlated with number of programs ranked). Hope it helps!

http://www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2009v3.pdf

there is no “minimum” per se.  depends how highly you’re ranked at the programs you rank highly.  and how everyone above you ranks programs.  theoretically, all you need is one… realistically, i’ve heard that “10” is the magic statistical number, to answer your question.

uditnarayan - 28 November 2009 12:01 PM

Hey!

Check out this PDF...it’s the charting outcomes from 2009 match and has some great info about neurosurgery (i.e. chance of matching correlated with number of programs ranked). Hope it helps!

http://www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2009v3.pdf

These stats are pretty detailed!  It looks like about 12 was the average among everyone that matched, among the unmatched 10.  Interestingly, the average number of slots the programs descended on their lists was 4-5 I think.

From interactions on the trail this year, most people I met did around 12.  I did 12 as well.  I met several people who did upper-teens to low twenties.  It all depends on how confident you feel with your candidacy.  I applied to 30 programs. Got around 25 interview offers, accepted around 18, and went on 12.

Longistheway - 17 February 2010 04:53 PM

Interestingly, the average number of slots the programs descended on their lists was 4-5 I think.

How did you come to this conclusion?

LongWayToGo - 17 February 2010 06:32 PM

Got around 25 interview offers, accepted around 18, and went on 12.

What does this mean? You went to fewer interviews than you “accepted”? Just confused.

I went on 12 too, back 7 years ago.

I “accepted” probably 15, but canceled the last three because it was January (then early match), and I was getting too tired of flying around the country to interview.

DoItLive - 17 February 2010 08:23 PM

LongWayToGo - 17 February 2010 06:32 PM

Got around 25 interview offers, accepted around 18, and went on 12.

What does this mean? You went to fewer interviews than you “accepted”? Just confused.

As the interview season goes on and you get the interviews you want, you can cancel the ones you were not very excited about. I think most applicants booked and then cancelled interviews.  Of course, it is always good etiquette to cancel ahead of time.

I was on the high end, with 18 interviews this year. Perhaps too many (based on my jet lag and pocketbook - ugh). Something I heard on the trail in terms of advice a student was given, was 40-20-10, i.e. apply to 40 programs, accept 20 interviews, go to 10. With as competitive as the trail seemed this year, you may want to err on the side of a few more interviews (though I concur that most people on the trail were around 12 plus/minus a couple). You will likely get more offers than you can go to, especially if you apply to around 40 programs. Also, as was mentioned above, there will be interviews that you will initially accept and then have to cancel due either to scheduling conflicts, interview burnout, or just plain running out of cheese.

LongWayToGo - 18 February 2010 07:45 AM

DoItLive - 17 February 2010 08:23 PM

LongWayToGo - 17 February 2010 06:32 PM

Got around 25 interview offers, accepted around 18, and went on 12.

What does this mean? You went to fewer interviews than you “accepted”? Just confused.

As the interview season goes on and you get the interviews you want, you can cancel the ones you were not very excited about. I think most applicants booked and then cancelled interviews.  Of course, it is always good etiquette to cancel ahead of time.

Thanks, yeah, I did the same. I guess I didn’t count the ones I cancelled as “accepted” so that’s why I was confused. Thanks.

Schophausen - 17 February 2010 06:35 PM

Longistheway - 17 February 2010 04:53 PM

Interestingly, the average number of slots the programs descended on their lists was 4-5 I think.

How did you come to this conclusion?

I misspoke before.  In the cited data above, the numbers were exactly: 13.5 = mean number of contiguous ranks for matched US seniors, while 9.9 = mean number of contiguous ranks for unmatched seniors. (Table NS-1, page 123)

The other data comes from http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2009.pdf.  Check out table 17.  The average number of ranked applicants per position needed to fill all positions within programs was 3.9 in 2009.

4/19 people not matching with 14 interviews = yikes! back to work

hey thanks for that data. i was freaking out about not being competitive enough, especially because of the number of interviews I have so far. (Not 60+ like others, more around the 20’s). My plan so far is attend 4-5 interviews in one week and then take a break, then go to 4-5 more. That way hopefully I’m not dead tired by the end of it. So far its worked well with the scheduling. Any other advice on how to keep fresh even for those late ones?

What is a “comfortable” or reassuring percentage when it comes to interview offers and # of programs applied to?

Here is some interesting data from the 2009 match outcome charting pdf (not sure if the 2010 file is available yet). I am only including the data pertinent to graduates of US medical schools:

- People who matched ranked, on average, 13 different programs.
- People who did not match ranked, on average, 10 different programs.
- That year, neurosurgery had the longest average contiguous ranked list of all specialties. In other words, people applying to neurosurgery ended up ranking more programs (probably to guarantee a place in the match) than people applying to any other specialty.

- Based on the top figure in page 128 (if you happen to have the pdf), once people start ranking 11+ programs, their chance of matching significantly increases. Of course this reflects both the fact that the more programs you interview at and rank the higher the chance you’ll end up at one of them, but also the fact that the better the applicant the more interviews he/she will end up getting anyway thus increasing the number of contiguous places they eventually rank. Based on that table:
If you rank between 1 and 8 programs, your likelihood of matching is about 57% (n = 35)
If you rank between 9 and 10 programs, your likelihood of matching is about 68% (n = 22)
If you rank between 11 and 15 programs, your likelihood of matching is about 82% (n = 102)
If you rank 16 or more programs, your likelihood of matching is about 93% (n = 56)
(Disclaimer: My break down of the results into the above 4 categories is totally arbitrary. I only tried to group together what I believed to be similar results of contiguous columns. You can lump together any 2+ of these contiguous columns as you’d like, but I believe you’ll get similar results anyway).

Of course many factors play into the above stats, including how many programs you apply to, how competitive these programs are, how well you interview, etc.

I hope that helps. It would be interesting to see the 2010 stats if anyone has them.